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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are expected across portions of the central
Plains and Middle/Lower Missouri Valley Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Damaging winds will be the most likely threat, followed by large
hail.

...Synopsis...
High pressure will build across the East as a large upper trough
exits New England. To the west, relatively zonal flow will exist
across central parts of the country, with various embedded waves
related to thunderstorm clusters.

Pockets of mid and upper 60s F dewpoints will exist across parts of
the central Plains as southerly winds persist and a low forms across
the OK/TX Panhandles. A weak cold front will push south across NE
and KS, with a warm front moving into IA. The boundaries will
provide a focus for storms throughout the day, with the primary
damaging wind risks from late afternoon into the overnight hours. 

...Middle and Lower MO Valley into the middle MS Valley...
Storms may be ongoing Tuesday morning from northeast OK across
eastern KS and NE, within a north-south oriented warm advection
regime aided by 30-40 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow. This southwest
flow will also push a warm front north across IA and southeast SD
during the day, and additional storms, possibly forming into an MCS,
are expected across IA during the late afternoon, then into northern
MO during the evening. Steep lapse rates aloft will favor vigorous
convection with damaging wind potential and hail. The southeastern
extent of the wind risk toward the MS Valley may depend on boundary
layer temperatures overnight.

...Central Plains...
Diurnal storms are likely to form late in the afternoon from
southeast WY into northeast CO and southwest NE, developing further
east/southeast across much of KS as a cold front moves south across
NE. Initial western activity may be high based with gusty winds and
marginal hail, with a more widespread wind threat possible across
northern and eastern KS and into western MO after 03Z. Given the
large area of strong instability, numerous storms/clusters are
expected, and sufficient uncertainty exists regarding timing and
precise locations to preclude an Enhanced Risk at this time.
However, higher probabilities for mainly damaging winds may be
needed in later updates.

..Jewell.. 05/16/2022