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Mesoscale Discussion 0782
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022

Areas affected...Far Northeast VA...Eastern MD...DE...NJ...NY Hudson
Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 161601Z - 161800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Increased thunderstorm coverage is expected over the next
few hours, with supercells capable of damaging wind gusts and hail
possible.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar and satellite imagery has shown an
increase in the showers from northern VA into NJ, with a few
stronger embedded updrafts. This area is indicative of the increased
ascent preceding the shortwave trough and attendant cold front. Air
mass over most of the region has warmed into the low 70s amid
dewpoints in the mid 60s. While cloud cover may impede heating
somewhat, this air mass is still expected to further destabilize
over the next few hours. As it does, a few stronger updrafts may
manifest within this warm-air advection regime. Moderate shear is in
place, so any stronger, more persistent updrafts could organize, and
the potential for a few supercells capable of isolated hail and
damaging wind gusts exists. Greatest chance for severe thunderstorms
during the next few hours appears to be across NJ and into the
Hudson Valley where temperatures are highest. Convective trends are
being monitored across the entire region for likely watch issuance.

..Mosier/Grams.. 05/16/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   41477459 41657399 41437338 40737375 39647418 38317518
            38127599 38397747 39297749 39777610 41037528 41477459