Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0731 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN NY TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM EASTERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe storms with damaging winds, a couple of
tornadoes and isolated large hail are expected from late morning
through the afternoon from central/eastern New York to the
Mid_Atlantic.  Damaging winds and isolated large hail will also be
possible this afternoon and early tonight from eastern New Mexico
into the Texas Panhandle.

...NY to the Mid-Atlantic from late morning to late afternoon...
A midlevel shortwave trough over the OH Valley this morning will
progress east-northeastward over the Mid-Atlantic and New England by
tonight, as an associated surface cyclone deepens across the Saint
Lawrence Valley and a trailing cold front likewise moves eastward
and offshore overnight.  Low-mid 60s boundary-layer dewpoints will
spread northward ahead of the front, and pockets of surface heating
will boost buoyancy by afternoon (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg). 
Deep-layer flow/vertical shear will increase with the approach of
the midlevel trough from the west, contributing to an environment
supportive of organized line segments and some supercell structures
from late morning through the afternoon.

Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage/intensity by late
morning from the Finger Lakes region southward along the leading
edge of the pre-frontal convective band moving into western PA this
morning.  These storms will subsequently spread eastward across NY
and the Mid-Atlantic through late afternoon, and other storms could
form farther west and southwest along the synoptic cold front,
assuming sufficient cloud breaks occur by midday.  The presence of
organized convective bands and strengthening wind profiles suggest
that wind damage with peak gusts of 55-70 mph will be a co*mon
threat this afternoon, west of any cooling marine influence.  The
threat for significant (75+ mph) gusts is more questionable given
rather modest downdraft potential (DCAPE generally less than 500
J/kg) and low-midlevel flow no stronger than 30-40 kt.  Otherwise,
low-level shear may be strong enough to support a couple of
tornadoes with pre-frontal supercells or circulations embedded in
line segments, and the stronger storms may also produce isolated
large hail of 1 to 1.5 inches in diameter. 

...Southern High Plains this afternoon into early tonight...
Low-level moisture has spread westward into eastern NM this morning
on post-frontal easterly flow.  Weak lee cyclogenesis and
heating/mixing within the initially moist air mass will reduce
convective inhibition this afternoon and allow scattered high-based
thunderstorm development across eastern NM, and storms will
gradually grow upscale and spread eastward on consolidating
outflows.  Inverted-V profiles with large DCAPE (near 1500 J/kg)
will favor scattered severe outflow gusts, some of which may
approach 75 mph prior to the convection slowly weakening early
tonight across the TX Panhandle.

...Northern Rockies areas afternoon/evening...
Subtle embedded speed maxima will continue to move from the northern
Great Basin/Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies, atop a weak
baroclinic zone from central ID to southwest MT.  A lingering
low-midlevel moisture plume and surface heating in cloud breaks will
support MLCAPE up to about 500 J/kg, within a corridor of effective
bulk shear of 30-40 kt and largely straight hodographs.  This
environment will support widely scattered storms this
afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the Beartooth Mountains, some
of which could have low-end/splitting supercell characteristics with
gusty outflow winds and marginally severe hail.

Farther south, a few high-based storms may form this afternoon
across extreme northeast NV and northwest UT, in advance of a subtle
shortwave trough now near the northeast CA/NV border.  Inverted-V
profiles will favor strong outflow gusts with any deep convection in
this corridor this afternoon/evening.

..Thompson/Leitman.. 05/16/2022