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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 AM CDT Sat May 14 2022

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AND
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF WEST TX TO SOUTHEAST
NE/NORTHEAST KS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the Great Plains, Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes regions,
mainly this afternoon and evening. Isolated hail and damaging wind
gusts will be the primary threats. Some threat may redevelop late
tonight across parts of Nebraska and Kansas.

...Synopsis...
The persistent midlevel low over the Southeast is in the process of
evolving into more of an open wave, and a primary embedded shortwave
trough will eject north-northeastward from NC to southern New
England by early Sunday.  This pattern evolution will be in response
to gradual upstream height falls across the upper Midwest and upper
MS Valley, downstream from modest height rises over the northern
Great Basin and northern Rockies.  Within the primary jet, an
embedded shortwave trough over MN/WI will eject northeastward toward
ON, and an upstream shortwave trough over the northern High Plains
will amplify some while digging southeastward over the middle MO
Valley.  The surface synoptic boundaries will remain rather diffuse
today into early tonight, prior to some sharpening of a front near
the KS/NE border by the end of the period.

...West TX to western KS this afternoon/evening...
A somewhat diffuse dryline is expected this afternoon from western
KS southward into west TX, where surface heating and deep mixing
could allow isolated thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon.
 A high-based supercell or two with isolated large hail and
strong-severe outflow gusts will be possible, given sufficiently
long hodographs with effective bulk shear greater than 40 kt. 

...Lower MS Valley to the Great Lakes this afternoon/evening...
Deep-layer flow/shear will be very weak from the lower OH River into
MI, where surface heating will drive MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg
(weaker north) and DCAPE near 1000 J/kg.  Weak low-level convergence
and minimal convective inhibition should support widely-scattered to
scattered thunderstorm development by mid-late afternoon, with the
potential for isolated wind damage with downbursts.  Somewhat richer
low-level moisture and larger CAPE are expected farther south into
the lower MS Valley region, though there is some uncertainty
regarding the lingering influence of ongoing morning convection
across the Ark-La-Miss.  Where pockets of stronger surface heating
occur, especially in conjunction with lingering outflow boundaries,
a few multicell clusters with strong/isolated damaging downburst
winds will be possible.

...Southeast NE/northeast KS 06-12z Sunday...
The aforementioned shortwave trough and low-level frontogenesis,
interacting with steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE near 1500
J/kg, will likely result in the formation of elevated thunderstorm
clusters early Sunday morning.  This convection will pose mainly an
isolated large hail threat during this forecast period, before
evolving into more of a damaging wind threat during the day Sunday
(D2).

..Thompson.. 05/14/2022