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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Sat May 14 2022

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO KANSAS/OKLAHOMA/MISSOURI/ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are expected from the Ohio Valley
area southwestward across the Tennessee and Mid Mississippi Valleys
to Kansas/Oklahoma/northeast Texas.  Locally damaging winds and hail
will be the primary risks.  A couple of severe storms -- capable of
producing damaging winds and/or hail -- will also be possible across
portions of the northwestern states.

...Southeastern Kansas east-northeastward across the Ohio Valley,
and southward into Oklahoma, Arkansas, and northern Mississippi...
As an upper low moves slowly east-southeastward out of Manitoba and
into Ontario, a short-wave trough extending south from the cyclone
will dig southeastward out of the northern Plains, and across the
Upper Great Lakes/Upper Midwest/Mid Missouri Valley through the
afternoon.

As this occurs, daytime heating/destabilization is expected ahead of
a cold front stretching from the Upper Great Lakes to
Oklahoma/western Texas during the afternoon.  As a result, expect
storms to develop from the Indiana vicinity southwestward across
Missouri and into parts of southeastern Kansas and Oklahoma.

With a 60-plus kt northwesterly mid-level jet spreading
southeastward across the Missouri Valley through the afternoon on
the southwestern fringe of the digging upper trough, shear will
favor organized convection.  Therefore, a few supercells are
expected initially, but then upscale growth into
southeastward-moving lines/clusters of storms should occur. 
Damaging winds would likely eventually beco*e the primary severe
risk with these lines/clusters, though hail and a tornado would also
be possible.

Storms should continue through the evening, especially across
western portions of the outlook area, while gradually decreasing
through late evening and into the overnight hours across the Ohio
Valley area.

...Western New York southward across the central Appalachians...
scattered thunderstorm development is forecast near higher terrain
of the central Appalachians Sunday afternoon, with a modestly
destabilizing airmass.  Along with somewhat limited CAPE, shear is
also forecast to be a bit on the weak side with respect to organized
storms.  Still, a couple of stronger storms/storm clusters may
evolve through the afternoon, capable primarily of locally gusty
winds before weakening into the evening hours.

...Eastern Oregon/southeastern Washington to western Montana...
A short-wave trough -- embedded in southwesterly cyclonic flow south
of a Gulf of Alaska upper low -- is progged to shift northeastward
into the Pacific Northwest during the day Sunday.  Daytime heating
of a modestly moist boundary layer ahead of an associated/advancing
cold front will co*bine with steepening lapse rates aloft to yield
modest (around 500 J/kg) mixed-layer CAPE.

Isolated storms are expected to initiate near the front, across the
eastern Oregon vicinity, as it shifts eastward through the evening. 
While low-level flow should remain relative weak, veering/increasing
flow with height will provide shear favorable for rotating updrafts.
As a result, a couple of the strongest storms will be capable of
producing hail and locally damaging winds, with risk spreading
eastward across parts of Idaho and possibly western Montana, before
storms weaken overnight.

..Goss.. 05/14/2022