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Mesoscale Discussion 0754
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0708 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

Areas affected...the Concho Valley to the Red River

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 140008Z - 140145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Numerous storms have developed along a dryline from the
Concho Valley to the Red River. These storms are expected to persist
for another hour or two before weakening after sunset.

DISCUSSION...Storms have developed in a hot and deeply mixed
environment across the Concho Valley and also near the Red River
where better low-level moisture is present. Flow is quite weak in
the lowest 6 km per area VWP, but there is stronger flow around 8km
(40-45 knots) which has helped aid in storm organization and some
supercell structures. Expect a large hail and damaging wind threat
to persist for another hour or two before weakening as the boundary
layer cools and storms beco*e more outflow dominant. This threat is
expected to be confined to a narrow corridor, and should not last
long enough to warrant a severe thunderstorm watch.

..Bentley/Hart.. 05/14/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   34279854 34459818 34049708 32939696 31949713 31029755
            30809852 30819936 30930047 31180085 31490107 31780098
            32240030 32939953 33529902 34279854