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Mesoscale Discussion 0742
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0523 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Areas affected...Central and Eastern South Dakota

Concerning...Tornado Watch 209...

Valid 122223Z - 130030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 209 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado threat is expected to quickly develop across
parts of northeastern South Dakota over the next hour. The threat
will spread northward with time and increase, especially in the
northern and eastern parts of WW 209.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Aberdeen, South Dakota
shows a severe line segment producing widespread wind damage located
across southeastern South Dakota. More discrete cells are developing
on the northwestern edge of the line about 50 miles from south to
southwest of Aberdeen.  The storms are ongoing in an extremely
unstable environment with MLCAPE in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range. In
addition, the Aberdeen WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots
with 0-3 km storm relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. This along
with a looping hodograph will be favorable for supercells and
tornadoes over the next one to two hours. The tornado threat will
likely increase due to a strengthening low-level jet as the storms
move across northeastern South Dakota. A strong tornado will be
possible with any supercell that can beco*e dominant.

The storms will move into southeastern North Dakota and into parts
of western Minnesota over the next hour, where a new weather watch
will be issued shortly.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   44959938 44469894 44349766 44439627 45039578 46289609
            46549742 46289935 44959938