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Mesoscale Discussion 0740
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0454 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Areas affected...Upper Michigan...Northern Wisconsin...Northeastern
Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205...207...

Valid 122154Z - 130000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205, 207
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue over the next few
hours across parts of northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan.
Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Green Bay has multiple
strong to severe line segments ongoing across far northeastern
Wisconsin and far western Upper Michigan. The storms are located
along an axis of moderate to strong instability, with the RAP
estimating MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. In addition, water
vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough moving northeastward
across southwestern Wisconsin, where a vorticity maxima near 14 is
analyzed by the RAP. This co*bined with 0-6 km shear near 40 knots,
evident on the Green Bay WSR-88D VWP will be favorable for severe
storms. The favored mode will likely remain linear, although an
isolated supercell or two will be possible. Wind damage and large
hail will be the primary threats. The severe threat will continue to
move northeastward further into western Upper Michigan over the next
couple of hours.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...

LAT...LON   46708778 46838963 46729014 46449046 46039055 45639023
            45398957 44988847 44878775 45258703 46098671 46708778