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Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA...INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI/NORTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS....

AMENDED FOR REMOVING GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA OVER COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO

...SUMMARY...
Strong/locally severe storms are expected across portions of the
central third of the U.S. -- particularly from the Kansas/Oklahoma
vicinity eastward toward the Ozarks.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level low over the Canadian Prairie is forecast to shift
slowly eastward Saturday, while disturbances embedded in
northwesterly flow aloft shift southeastward across the Plains/Upper
Midwest through the period.

At the surface, a dissipating cold front will shift eastward across
the Midwest, while a second shifts southeastward across the northern
and central Plains -- to a position from the Upper Great Lakes
region southwestward to Oklahoma by the end of the period.

...Upper Mississippi Valley to the southern Plains...
Thunderstorm development is expected by mid to late afternoon along
a cold front, from the western Upper Great Lakes southwestward to
western Texas.  Modest flow aloft is expected across northern
portions of this region, which in tandem with weaker instability as
co*pared to areas farther south, should limit overall severe risk to
isolated/stronger storms.

Over the Kansas/Oklahoma vicinity, a more favorably moist boundary
layer will destabilize in conjunction with daytime heating, to yield
moderate CAPE.  This will support development of isolated storms by
late afternoon -- which should organize locally given moderate
northwesterly flow aloft, atop the low-level southerlies.  With
low-level shear expected to remain rather weak, damaging winds and
hail will be the primary concerns.

During the evening, as a low-level jet develops over the southern
Plains region, upscale growth of convection into an
east-southeastward-moving MCS appears possible, which would allow
wind risk to potentially increase somewhat, spreading into parts of
southwestern Missouri/northwestern Arkansas overnight.

..Smith.. 05/12/2022