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Mesoscale Discussion 0708
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022

Areas affected...Parts of far northeast Iowa into central and
southern Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 101745Z - 102015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of widely scattered thunderstorms capable of
large to very large hail, damaging gusts, and a couple tornadoes
will increase between 19Z-21Z. A watch will likely be needed for
parts of the area this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a
northeast/southwest-oriented quasi-stationary baroclinic zone
extending across central WI. Along and south of the boundary, strong
diurnal heating of an increasingly moist boundary layer (upper
60s/lower 70s surface dewpoints) beneath steep midlevel lapse rates
is contributing to a strongly unstable airmass. While southerly
surface winds will generally be weak across the warm sector, the
eventual development of a weak frontal wave along the boundary could
support subtle warm advection and slightly backed surface flow
across the warm sector. 

Despite negligible large-scale ascent characterized by neutral to
slight midlevel height rises across the area, water vapor imagery
shows a belt of strong west-southwesterly flow aloft -- supporting
30-45 kt of effective shear amid the destabilizing airmass. Isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop along the
baroclinic zone and spread east-northeastward this afternoon.
Initially, discrete to semi-discrete supercell structures will be
capable of isolated large to very large hail and damaging wind
gusts, though small, clockwise-turning low-level hodographs could
support a tornado or two with the more organized/discrete
supercells. With time, storms should gradually grow upscale with
eastward extent amid minimal CINH, when damaging winds and sporadic
large hail will be the primary concerns. A watch will likely be
needed this afternoon.

..Weinman/Mosier.. 05/10/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON   43699125 44269094 44999018 45278965 45468866 45298818
            44638798 44078795 43288820 42988858 42818899 42709004
            42659077 42749114 43259139 43699125