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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CDT Mon May 09 2022

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...

...Southern High Plains...
Late in the period, low-level moisture is forecast to surge westward
near a retreating dryline across portions of west TX and eastern NM.
A subtle shortwave trough passing along the eastern periphery of the
southwesterly flow aloft will overspread weak lift across the
moistening airmass Tuesday night. Isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms may develop and persist for a few hours supporting the
development of lightning strikes within dry fuels. Area soundings
show mostly wet profiles with PWATS greater than 1 inch likely. The
slow storm motions and high water content suggests only limited
potential for dry strikes, though a few may be possible outside of
the better cores. 

Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains valid with only minor
adjustments for the latest guidance. See the prior discussion for
more info.

..Lyons.. 05/09/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon May 09 2022/

...Synopsis...
While stronger mid-level flow will continue to shift northward into
the northern Plains through tomorrow/Tuesday, prevailing cyclonic
flow aloft and modest surface lee troughing across the High Plains
will trigger a mass response in the form of very dry westerly winds
across the Southwest. Given the presence of very dry fuels and no
beneficial rainfall in sight, significant wildfire-spread potential
will continue wherever drier/windier conditions materialize.

...Southwest...
The co*bination of downslope flow and the downward momentum
transport of the stronger mid-level flow (via boundary-layer mixing)
will support the development of widespread 15-25 mph sustained
westerly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH. Elevated highlights
have been introduced wherever any dry/windy conditions are expected
to overlap fuels that are at least modestly receptive to wildfire
spread. Critical highlights were also introduced where the most
favorable surface wind/RH overlap will occur for several hours
tomorrow afternoon, and where fuels are critically to exceptionally
receptive to significant wildfire spread.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...