Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Mesoscale Discussion 0687
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CDT Sat May 07 2022

Areas affected...portions of central South Dakota into north-central
Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 072055Z - 072230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage over
the next couple of hours. Large hail and isolated damaging gusts
will be possible with these storms from central South Dakota into
north-central Nebraska through this evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase in
coverage over the next couple of hours from central SD into
north-central NE ahead of an eastward-advancing surface boundary.
Moderate southerly low-level flow has transported mid 50s to near 60
F surface dewpoints northward across the region beneath steep
midlevel lapse rates. Where stronger surface heating has occurred,
temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to low 80s and MLCAPE
has increased to 500-1000 J/kg. Strong effective shear will support
initial semi-discrete higher-based supercells. Elongated hodographs
above 3km couple with steep lapse rates suggest large hail will
acco*pany initial convection. With time, convection is expected to
evolve into clusters and/or line segments via storm outflow
interactions/cold pool processes. While some inhibition may persist,
pockets of strong low-level lapse rates and moderate DCAPE will
support strong downdrafts and a transition toward increasing
damaging wind potential is expected. A severe thunderstorm watch
will likely be needed in the next hour or so.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/07/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   45909944 44709896 43209884 41989912 41659996 41640060
            41860120 42510143 44190148 45110116 45730069 45920023
            45979988 45909944