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Mesoscale Discussion 0686
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CDT Sat May 07 2022

Areas affected...portions of central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 072033Z - 072230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A storm or two may develop over parts of central TX in the
next couple of hours. If an organized storm forms, large hail and
strong gusts will be possible.

DISCUSSION...A small area of vertically developing cumulus along a
surface dryline is evident across portions of central TX this
afternoon. Strong heating in the vicinity of the dryline is noted,
with temperatures into the upper 90s to low 100s F. Large-scale
scent remains weak, but strong mixing co*bined with modest low-level
convergence has been sufficient to weaken MLCIN. One towering
cumulus has been noted near the co*anche/Hamilton County border
recently where dewpoints are in the upper 60s F. Weak reflectivity
from the KGRK 88-D is struggling to intensify, suggesting at least
some weak inhibition is still present. While weak forcing may
ultimately limit convective initiation, a storm or two appears
possible over the next few hours. If a storm develops, steep
midlevel lapse rates and strong instability will support a brief
threat for large hail. Additionally, steep low-level lapse rates
withing a dry sub-cloud layer with high DCAPE values and weak
low-level shear will support locally strong gusts. Given the
conditional and limited spatial/temporal nature of the threat, a
watch is not expected at this time.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/07/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   31209770 30719794 30509824 30489848 30529882 30649894
            31049889 31619882 32089880 32459864 32629844 32609815
            32449791 32049772 31659769 31209770