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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sat May 07 2022

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and isolated damaging
wind are possible across western and central Nebraska, mainly this
evening and tonight. Other isolated severe storms are possible
across parts of the Dakotas, north and central Texas, and the
Florida Peninsula.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level low and an associated surface cyclone are forecast
to move slowly southeastward today, moving off of the Mid Atlantic
coast later tonight. A cold front will move into the FL Peninsula
and northern Gulf of Mexico during the day today, before beco*ing
nearly stationary by Sunday morning. Meanwhile, a deep longwave
upper trough will continue to beco*e established across the western
CONUS, as a prominent embedded shortwave trough and attendant
surface cyclone move across the northern Rockies/High Plains into
the Canadian Prairies by this evening. 

...Dakotas into Nebraska...
Modest low-level moisture (dewpoints generally in the 50s F) will
return to parts of the Dakotas by this afternoon, in advance of a
cold front. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support the development
of moderate buoyancy, though MLCINH is forecast to remain strong
across much of the warm sector. The best chance for isolated
surface-based development appears to be across western/central ND,
in closer proximity to the ejecting midlevel shortwave trough,
though late afternoon development cannot be ruled out across parts
of SD/NE. Strong deep-layer shear will support a threat of hail and
isolated severe gusts with any cells that develop during the late
afternoon/early evening.  

Later this evening, vigorous elevated convection is expected to
develop across parts of western/central NE, as richer moisture
returns in conjunction with a strengthening low-level jet.
Deep-layer shear will continue to support organized storms, and most
CAM guidance suggests the potential for a few elevated supercells
from late evening into the overnight hours. Large hail should be the
primary initial threat in this regime. Some upscale growth is
expected as this convection moves eastward, though substantial
low-level stability downstream may tend to limit the severe wind
risk.

A Slight Risk has been added across western/central Nebraska, due to
the potential for isolated surface-based storms through early
evening, followed by a greater coverage of strong elevated storms
overnight. Parts of the Dakotas may eventually require an upgrade as
well, if confidence in sufficient storm coverage increases across
that area. 

...Florida...
A few strong storms may be ongoing at the start of the period near
the front across the FL Peninsula, within an environment
characterized by moderate buoyancy and deep-layer shear. Isolated
hail and damaging gusts will be possible as these storms generally
spread southward through the day, with a gradual weakening trend
expected by evening. 

...Parts of north and central TX...
Extreme buoyancy (MLCAPE > 4000 J/kg) is expected to develop this
afternoon across parts of north and central TX. Strong heating may
allow for a narrow corridor near the dryline where convective
inhibition substantially weakens by late afternoon. Large-scale
ascent is expected to remain negligible across the region, but
initiation of one or two storms (as depicted by the 00Z NAM Nest and
NSSL ARW) near the dryline cannot be ruled out. Deep-layer shear
will remain weak, but the magnitude of instability will support a
risk of hail and localized downbursts should initiation occur.

..Dean/Squitieri.. 05/07/2022