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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 AM CDT Sat May 07 2022

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
A few elevated, hail-producing storms may develop Monday night
across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity.

...Synopsis...
Little overall change to the broader upper flow pattern over the
U.S. is expected Monday, with troughing persisting over the West,
and a low near/off the East Coast.  In between, ridging will prevail
from the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward
to eastern Canada.

At the surface, high pressure will prevail east of the Mississippi,
while a northeast-to-southwest baroclinic zone remains from the
Upper Great Lakes region southwestward across the Plains to the
Desert Southwest.

...Portions of the southern Minnesota/Wisconsin/Iowa area...
As a southwesterly low-level jet develops across the Plains Monday
night, agreement across various models exists that strong/elevated
storms -- and possibly a couple of severe-hail-producing cells --
may develop across the Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity.  This
region is progged to lie to the northeast of a Kansas frontal wave,
with warm advection/ascent occurring near/north of the warm front
which should lie across the Iowa/Wisconsin vicinity.  With very
steep lapse rates aloft contributing to strong elevated CAPE, and 30
to 40 kt mid-level southwesterly flow across this area, risk for
hail appears sufficient to warrant inclusion of a 5%/MRGL risk area
at this time.

..Goss.. 05/07/2022