Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Mesoscale Discussion 0659
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 PM CDT Thu May 05 2022

Areas affected...Parts of central Texas into the Ark-La-Tex

Concerning...Tornado Watch 181...

Valid 051757Z - 051900Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 181 continues.

SUMMARY...An evolving convective system may further organize,
acco*panied by potential for increasingly widespread strong wind
gusts and perhaps occasional brief tornadoes through 2-4 PM CDT. 
Trends are being monitored for additional watches downstream.

DISCUSSION...A pre-cold frontal confluence zone around the 850 mb
level has remained the focus for vigorous thunderstorm development
across and northeast of the I-35 corridor of central Texas. 
Increasingly divergent upper flow has supported considerable
expansion of cloud tops and precipitation during the past couple of
hours, northeast of the Waco vicinity toward the Ark-La-Tex, where a
surface cold pool appears to be gradually consolidating.  

Recent trends in radar imagery suggest that a lower/mid tropospheric
mesoscale convective vortex may be in the process of forming to the
northwest of Tyler.  As this continues, strengthening rear inflow is
likely to develop to its southwest and south, contributing to a
gradual eastward and southeastward acceleration of the strengthening
surface cold pool.  Locally strong to severe gusts are already
occurring with stronger embedded cells (as evidenced by the gust to
54 kt at Waco TX), and it appears that potentially damaging wind
gusts may beco*e more widespread across northeastern Texas into the
Ark-La-Tex vicinity through 19-21Z.  

Given the strengthening cold pool, moderately strong low-level shear
and deep moist boundary layer (including lower 70s F dew points),
the evolution of transient mesovortices along its leading edge
appears possible, acco*panied by locally stronger gusts and perhaps
occasionally intensifying with brief tornadoes possible.

..Kerr.. 05/05/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   30589819 31809627 32549543 33439432 33049167 31149388
            30189549 29679775 30589819