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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Thu May 05 2022

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF EAST
TX...SOUTHERN AR...AND NORTHWEST LA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely, mainly during the afternoon into
early evening across parts of central to east Texas through the
Mid-South. Damaging winds should be the primary hazard, but isolated
tornadoes and large hail will also be possible.

...Central and east TX to the Mid-South...
The remnants of extensive convective overturning overnight are
ongoing across parts of MO/AR/OK. A lead MCV associated with a
decaying MCS has reached southeast MO, outpacing most CAM guidance.
Flow enhancement attendant to the MCV should largely remain on the
cool side of the surface warm front and outpace richer
boundary-layer moisture as it tracks into the Lower OH Valley. It
appears plausible that trailing convective outflow oriented from
northeast to southwest will effectively serve as the primary
boundary for afternoon storm development in the Mid-South region of
the MS Valley. Steepening low-level lapse rates to its east/south
should promote a main threat of scattered damaging wind gusts, with
low confidence tornado potential focused near the warm front/outflow
intersection. 

Farther west-southwest, elevated convection over southeast OK
spreading east-southeast co*bined with additional convective
development blossoming along the co*posite surface cold
front/outflow into central TX should foster widespread thunderstorms
this afternoon. The most favorable low-level hodographs should tend
to be focused near the Ark-La-Tex and Sabine Valley where embedded
supercells would be capable of producing a few tornadoes. Given the
progressiveness of the co*posite cold front/outflow along with the
bulk of deep-layer winds largely paralleling this boundary
(especially with southwest extent in TX), a linear convective mode
with surging cold pools is expected to dominate. While large hail is
possible given a plume of 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40-50 kt
effective bulk shear, damaging winds should be the most prolific
hazard in terms of coverage. The severe threat should diminish after
dusk as MCSs shift south/east away from stronger low-level flow
attendant to the KS/Ozark Plateau upper low and stronger instability
in south TX. 

...Ozark Plateau vicinity...
Large-scale ascent tied to the primary mid-level vorticity maximum
embedded within the upper low over western KS will approach the
KS/OK/MO/AR borders region this afternoon. Extensive convective
overturning this morning and residual cloudiness will likely
mitigate substantial boundary-layer heating. Nevertheless, a plume
of steep mid-level lapse rates near the low and adequate deep-layer
shear should promote a threat for mainly isolated severe hail during
the late afternoon to early evening.

..Grams/Broyles.. 05/05/2022