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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0943 AM CDT Wed May 04 2022

Valid 041700Z - 051200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN TO NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...

The ongoing forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments
needed based on morning observations and latest trends is morning
guidance. The 12 UTC ABQ and EPZ soundings sampled a dry boundary
layer over NM and surface observations show RH already falling into
the upper teens to low 20s. Further drying is expected as broad
subsidence overspreads the region to the south of an upper-level low
over CO. Uncertainty remains regarding the extent of the fire
weather threat across the western TX Panhandle, and will be
dependent on where the dryline sharpens this afternoon.
Additionally, morning clouds and light rainfall across southeast NM
and southwest TX introduce some uncertainty regrading the RH
forecast for this afternoon. However, there are several factors that
justify maintaining the ongoing risk areas, including regional ERCs
above the 90th percentile, limited observed recent rainfall at the
surface, observed RH falls on the western periphery of the cloud
deck, and a strong signal in ensemble guidance for elevated to
critical conditions by late afternoon.

..Moore.. 05/04/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Wed May 04 2022/

...Synopsis...
A broad upper-level trough across the Four Corners and central
Rockies will move eastward into the central/southern Plains today. A
surface cyclone will deepen in eastern New Mexico. Fire weather
concerns will be focused across New Mexico.

...New Mexico into West Texas...
Strong surface winds are expected to develop behind a co*posite
front/dryline in West Texas. Winds of 20-25 mph are probable across
much southern, central, and northeastern New Mexico. RH of 10-15%
will be co*mon, but locally 5-10% is possible. Critical conditions
may extend into parts of the Texas Panhandle and South Plains at
least briefly. With modest uncertainty in the dryline position and
possible South Plains precipitation this morning, Elevated
highlights will be maintained in these areas.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...