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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 AM CDT Wed May 04 2022

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE TX
PANHANDLE...WESTERN NORTH TX...AND SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL OK...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
southern Great Plains this afternoon through tonight. Strong tornado
and very large hail potential are most probable across the southeast
Texas Panhandle into portions of southern Oklahoma and north Texas.

...Southern Great Plains...
A wide variety of potential forecast outco*es are evident today with
unusually large spread among guidance at this stage of the outlook
cycle. As such, the middle categorical risk is probably the most
statistically appropriate forecast, even though potential does exist
for intense supercells capable of producing very large hail and
strong tornadoes. 

Initially, guidance diverges with the degree of late morning
elevated convective coverage within a robust low-level warm theta-e
advection regime. The western and southern extent of this activity
differs substantially which provides low confidence in how far the
surface warm front will advance. The leading edge of rich western
Gulf moisture characterized by mid 60s surface dew points has spread
across the Permian Basin and the Edwards Plateau into eastern TX.
Guidance that is subdued with elevated convection such as the 09Z
RAP/HRRR suggests this moisture plume and warm front will reach the
southeast TX Panhandle and at least the southern half of OK. This
profoundly impacts the potential intensity of dryline supercells,
with several HRRR runs adamant of long-lived, high-end 2-5 km
updraft helicity near the dryline/surface warm front intersection.
Under a more suppressive scenario such as the 06Z NAM or 00Z
ARW-NSSL, MLCAPE into the TX Panhandle would be much more subdued in
amplitude and spatial extent leading to initial discrete supercells
tending to quickly evolve across a cooler boundary layer over the
eastern panhandle and western OK. 

Differences are also pronounced with the degree of warm sector
convective development well ahead of the dryline from the Big
Country to north-central TX during the afternoon. This too will have
impacts spatially on how far north MCS development occurs this
evening. The primary strengthening of broad low-level southerlies is
anticipated in the 03-06Z time frame as the primary vorticity lobe
within the slow-moving southern Rockies shortwave trough ejects onto
the south-central High Plains. By this time, convective mode will
probably be dominated by eastward-moving MCSs with the primary
severe threat confined to along and south of the spatially unclear
warm front. 

...Southeast VA and the Carolinas...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Lower Great Lakes will
move east into southern New England this evening. To the south of
this wave, a cold front will push southeast across the Lower
Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas. Convergence along the cold front
and coastal sea breezes should support scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon. While deep-layer shear will be modest, it should be
adequate for multicells capable of isolated severe hail and damaging
winds. Convection should largely shift offshore and/or weaken after
dusk.

..Grams/Mosier.. 05/04/2022