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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Tue May 03 2022

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Storms may produce tornadoes and very large hail Wednesday afternoon
and evening from the eastern Texas Panhandle and northwest Texas
across southern Oklahoma. A strong tornado or two is possible within
this corridor. Damaging winds will also be possible across much of
Oklahoma Wednesday night, including the threat of isolated
tornadoes. The tornado risk may extend as far east as the western
Ozarks.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will slowly progress eastward across CO and NM
during the day, with gradual height falls into the central and
southern Plains. A broad region of 50+ kt 500 mb winds will
overspread the region, with high-level winds to 70-80 kt over the
High Plains. 

At the surface, low pressure will develop along the NM/TX border,
with a warm front moving north across TX and into central OK by 00Z.
A dryline will set up across the central TX Panhandle and South
Plains, with strong heating. Meanwhile, a cold front will be surging
southward across western KS and the OK/TX Panhandles mainly after
00Z. The northward extent of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints behind
this warm front will play a key role regarding conditional
significant tornado potential and storm coverage, as a broad
low-level jet enhances low-level shear.

...Central and northern OK during the day...
The rapid surge of moisture out of the south will result in
scattered storms during the morning and through at least midday,
roughly along and north of I-40 and expanding into southeast
KS/southwest MO. Forecast soundings indicate sufficient elevated
instability and deep-layer effective shear to support severe hail.
Depending on how much outflow is produced, this convection may
reinforce the warm front, and provide a somewhat northern bound to
the tornado threat later in the day. 

...Eastern TX Panhandle, northwest TX southwest OK afternoon through
overnight...
Strong instability will develop east of the dryline by late
afternoon, as dewpoints increase into the 60s F roughly south of
I-40. This may be a favored area for isolated tornadic supercells
prior to the surging cold front intercepting around 03Z. Steep
midlevel lapse rates as well as robust shear and 200-300 m2/s2
effective SRH in the warm front zone to the east may sustain storms
despite an increase in capping, with strong tornadoes possible.
Eventually, a squall line is expected to form along the cold front,
with damaging winds possibly overspreading much of OK.

...Southern OK into northern TX...
Models continue to suggest isolated to scattered late afternoon
storms within the more robust moist sector where dewpoints above 68
F are possible, from northern TX into south-central OK. Given
relatively weak lift within the diffuse warm advection zone, capping
may play a key role. However, persistent moistening of the boundary
layer may eventually break the cap from below. Any residual outflows
could also provide a focus. Steep lapse rates to around 8 C/km will
exist in the mid-levels, which will conditionally support
significant tornado potential as shear will be quite favorable for
supercells. Effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 will be co*mon, with
lengthy hodographs to sustain any supercell that manage to form.

...Carolinas and southeast Virginia...
Strong heating will occur with a weak surface trough developing
during the afternoon, beneath modest west/northwest flow aloft.
Numerous storms are expected to form around 18Z across central NC
and into SC, and along the sea breeze. Although shear will be weak,
strong lapse rates should allow for vigorous convection, both pulse
and multi-cell, producing localized wind damage and marginally
severe hail. Storms will be diurnally driven, and are expected to
weaken by 00-01Z.

..Jewell.. 05/03/2022