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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1003 AM CDT Tue May 03 2022

Valid 031700Z - 041200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO...

The forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed.
Morning surface observations across central to eastern NM show a
gradient in low-level moisture with dewpoints in the low 30s noted
across the eastern plains of NM. This moisture has reduced
confidence in the eastern extent of critical wind/RH conditions this
afternoon with most morning guidance showing RH reductions into the
15-20% range for the eastern plains. To the west across central NM
and AZ, RH values are already falling into the 20s, and should
continue to fall through the afternoon as winds increase and drier
boundary-layer air (noted in the 12 UTC ABQ and FGZ soundings) mixes
to the surface. See the previous discussion below for additional
details.

..Moore.. 05/03/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Tue May 03 2022/

...Synopsis...
Another shortwave trough within the Great Basin will move into the
central Rockies today. A deep surface low will develop in eastern
Colorado and slowly shift into eastern New Mexico through the day.
Mid-level winds will strengthen as the trough approaches and the
strong surface pressure gradient will drive westerly/southwesterly
winds across much of Arizona and New Mexico. A Pacific front will
move through the Great Basin and into Arizona.

...Southwest...
Critical fire weather is expected during the afternoon. Surface
winds will reach 20-25 mph from northwest Arizona into western and
central New Mexico. Some higher speeds are possible locally. Dry air
will remain across the region. As the trough moves in, some
higher-level moisture may be brought northward. This will mean an
increase in high-level clouds which could impact afternoon RH. Even
with some cloud cover potential, values of 10-15% are still
expected. Elevated conditions are expected within southeast Arizona 
and eastern New Mexico where winds will be 15-20 mph with 15-20% RH.

...Southern Nevada...
Strong northerly winds behind the cold front will develop relatively
early in the day. The post-front airmass will remain dry and
humidity could fall to near 20% early and to near 10% later in the
day. The strongest winds (20 mph) are expected earlier in the day
and may not overlap much with critically low RH. Elevated fire
weather is expected.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...