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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

[html]SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
         
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook 
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CDT Tue May 03 2022

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN TO NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...

The ongoing forecast remains generally on track with only minor
adjustments needed based on latest guidance. There is some
uncertainty regarding the eastern extent of the fire weather concern
behind a sharpening dryline across western TX. This feature is
currently expected to be roughly along the I-27 corridor, but the
exact longitudinal placement by peak heating remains somewhat
uncertain. Furthermore, early morning rain and afternoon
thunderstorms in proximity to this boundary may mitigate fuel
receptiveness on the eastern extent of the outlook area. Further
refinements are possible as confidence in the dryline placement and
rainfall forecast increase.

..Moore.. 05/03/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Tue May 03 2022/

...Synopsis...
The shortwave trough over the Rockies will eventually eject into the
central Plains on Wednesday. Stronger mid-level flow will exist more
broadly across the Southwest. At the surface, a cyclone will deepen
in eastern New Mexico and drive downslope flow across the state.

...New Mexico...
Fire weather concerns will be focused across southern, central and
eastern portions of the state. As co*pared to Tuesday, mid-level
winds will be stronger over a broader area, particularly in the
south. Surface winds will also be more westerly and favor drier
conditions. Afternoon RH is expected to fall to 5-15%. Winds of
20-25 mph are also expected. Some of the higher elevation areas in
the Critical highlights may only see Elevated conditions due to
slightly higher RH values.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


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Source: SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html)