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Mesoscale Discussion 0620
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 PM CDT Mon May 02 2022

Areas affected...Portions of southern/central KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 021810Z - 022015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado, large hail, and damaging wind threat should
increase this afternoon. Watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...18Z surface analysis shows a surface low centered over
far southwestern KS, with an attendant cold front sweeping southward
over the central Plains. Low-level moisture is returning northward
ahead of this low and the front, with mid 50s to low 60s surface
dewpoints prevalent across northern OK into southern KS. Recent
visible satellite imagery indicates the cu field is beco*ing
agitated across southwestern KS just east of the surface low.
Current expectations are for thunderstorms to initiate across this
region over the next hour or two as ascent associated with a co*pact
shortwave trough and mid-level jet overspread the central Plains.

A favorable veering/strengthening wind profile for supercells is
forecast across southern KS, with 45-50+ kt of effective bulk shear
present. The main uncertainty is how much destabilization will occur
owing to persistent/widespread cloudiness and the lingering effects
of earlier convection across OK and related outflow boundaries.
Still, modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates and cool mid-level
temperatures associated with the shortwave trough should act in
tandem with modest diurnal heating to support around 500-1500 J/kg
of MLCAPE. Greater instability will likely remain confined near the
OK/KS border.

Any supercells that can develop and persist over the next few hours
will pose a threat for isolated tornadoes given the favorable
low-level shear noted in recent VWPs from KICT. Large hail and
damaging winds may also occur. As convection spreads eastward this
afternoon and early evening, some high-resolution guidance suggests
upscale growth into a small bowing cluster may occur. Damaging winds
would beco*e the main threat across south-central KS if this
evolution occurs, but embedded QLCS circulations would also be
possible. Tornado Watch issuance appears likely as convective
initiation beco*es increasingly probable by 19-20Z (2-3 PM CDT).

..Gleason/Hart.. 05/02/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   37069982 37530011 38009971 38199905 38309850 38309780
            38239697 38089648 37669636 37059664 37039766 37019899
            37069982