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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Mon May 02 2022

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Intense severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of
northern Oklahoma and far southern Kansas, mainly between about 3 to
11 PM CDT. Tornadoes are likely, a few of which could be strong,
along with widespread damaging winds and very large hail.

...Synopsis..
A shortwave trough over CO with a co*pact but strong mid-level
jetlet to its south will shift east across the KS/OK area through
this evening. Attendant surface cyclone over southeast CO should
deepen slightly as it progresses into northwest and north-central
OK. The dryline will arc south-southwest from this cyclone across
western OK into the Edwards Plateau. Uncertainty exists on exactly
how far north the surface warm front will advance with substantial
differences between the 06Z NAM and 09Z RAP, but it should approach
the KS/OK border east into southern MO. A sharp cold front will
plunge south on the backside of the cyclone as pronounced surface
ridging builds down the High Plains.

...KS/OK to the Ozarks...
Initial supercell development is expected towards early afternoon
across west-central to southwest KS immediately ahead of the
mid-level wave where a bent-back plume of low-level moisture
persists. Severe hail should be the main threat, especially as
convection gets undercut from west to east through the rest of the
afternoon, but a tornado threat will also exist as convection
impinges on higher-quality moisture toward south-central KS. More
intense supercells will likely develop immediately ahead of the
surface cyclone near the south-central KS/north-central OK border
area by 21Z. This activity should largely ride along the surface
warm front zone within a vorticity-rich environment, but additional
cells may develop along the dryline towards central OK through early
evening where large buoyancy of 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE will be
prevalent. Several hourly HRRR runs along with 00Z HRW-ARW and
NSSL-ARW suggest classic intense supercell to bow echo evolution
will occur from north-central to northeast OK. This lends confidence
in amplifying severe threat probabilities. Significant tornadoes and
very large hail will be most likely in the early supercell stage,
with the latter transitioning to a significant damaging wind threat
in a bowing QLCS towards the Ozark Plateau. This emerging MCS should
eventually weaken towards late evening into the overnight through a
co*bination of increasing MLCIN to its south along the Red River and
weaker instability east of the Ozarks. 

...c*astal Carolinas...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the coastal sea breeze
this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear will
support a threat for marginally severe hail and locally damaging
winds in the strongest storms. 

...Southern ID...
Convective signals are somewhat muted in this region but a
conditionally supportive environment should develop this afternoon
immediately ahead of a vigorous shortwave trough approaching from
OR. Meager surface-based buoyancy may develop amid favorable
deep-layer shear to yield a threat of small to marginally severe
hail and locally strong gusts.

..Grams.. 05/02/2022