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Mesoscale Discussion 0604
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1042 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022

Areas affected...Northern LA...Eastern AR...Northwest MS...Far
southwest TN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 165...166...

Valid 010342Z - 010545Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 165, 166
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for isolated hail and damaging wind will
continue into the overnight hours, though a gradual decrease in the
severe risk is expected with time.

DISCUSSION...At 0330Z, thunderstorm clusters are ongoing across
parts of northwest LA, southern AR, and northwest MS. Storm coverage
and intensity has actually increased somewhat over the last hour,
potentially due to the influence of a gradually increasing
southwesterly low-level jet noted in VWPs from KSHV and KNQA. 
Moderate-to-strong instability (MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) persists
across the region, helping to maintain vigorous updrafts despite the
onset of nocturnal boundary-layer cooling/stabilization. Effective
shear ranges from around 25 kt across northwest LA to 35-40 kt into
northwest MS, supporting occasionally organized storm structures
with an attendant threat of hail and locally damaging wind gusts. 

The southwesterly low-level jet will help to maintain (if not
increase) storm coverage overnight. The northernmost cluster is
moving toward a region of substantially lower boundary-layer
moisture and weaker buoyancy, and is expected to generally weaken
with time. The clusters across northwest LA and southern AR may tend
to organize into a loosely organized MCS and move southeastward
overnight, posing a continued threat of localized hail and damaging
wind. However, deep-layer flow/shear will weaken with southward
extent, and a gradual decrease in the severe threat is expected
overnight. 

Given the factors mentioned above, watch issuance downstream of WW
165 or WW 166 is currently considered unlikely, though local
extension of the ongoing watches may need to be considered depending
on shorter-term trends.

..Dean/Guyer.. 05/01/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   31979415 33349276 35129063 35369017 35238934 34668913
            33708946 33028995 32259121 32039235 32019330 32009346
            31979415