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Mesoscale Discussion 0602
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022

Areas affected...Southwest TN into northwest MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 010053Z - 010230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms will spread into the region later
this evening, with a threat of hail and locally damaging wind. Watch
issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...At 0045Z, a relatively long-lived supercell is moving
across eastern AR toward the TN/MS border, with other discrete cells
noted into south-central AR. While much of MS into western TN is
notably dry/stable, with dewpoints only in the 50s F, richer
low-level moisture has spread into a small portion of western TN
into northwest MS, resulting in MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg.
Modest westerly midlevel flow will continue to support sufficient
effective shear for organized storms, including the continued
potential for a couple supercells and/or organized clusters moving
in from the west later this evening. 

The primary threat is expected to be hail and locally damaging wind,
though modestly enhanced low-level flow/shear noted on the NQA VWP
may support a brief tornado threat as well. Watch issuance is
possible into parts of southwest TN/northwest MS in order to cover
these threats into late tonight.

..Dean/Guyer.. 05/01/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   35409005 35418960 34818967 34338976 33548999 32989056
            32909110 33009136 33259136 33699108 33719103 34149078
            34279068 35049027 35409005