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Mesoscale Discussion 0586
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0708 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

Areas affected...Northeast KS and far southeast NE

Concerning...Tornado Watch 158...

Valid 300008Z - 300145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 158 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for tornadoes and very large hail continues.
The damaging wind risk will likely increase with time this evening.

DISCUSSION...At 00Z, a supercell cluster is moving into far
southeast NE, with other potentially tornadic supercells ongoing
across Washington County, KS, to the west of Wichita. Meanwhile,
convection is rapidly increasing along an outflow which surged
eastward and is intercepting the dryline. 

MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg and 0-1 km SRH greater than 200 m2/s2
will support the risk of tornadoes (including a strong tornado) with
any semi-discrete supercell this evening, especially as storms move
near the warm frontal zone. Very large hail will also remain
possible, as evidenced by a 4-inch diameter hail report near
Enterprise, KS. A tendency toward upscale growth is expected as
convective outflow and eventually the synoptic cold front overtake
the region, posing an increasing risk of damaging wind with time
this evening.

..Dean.. 04/30/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...to*...

LAT...LON   39749721 40269695 40309649 40169610 39629617 39009623
            38789650 38659663 38679690 38769727 39169709 39749721