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Mesoscale Discussion 0585
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

Areas affected...Southeast Kansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 158...

Valid 292354Z - 300130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 158 continues.

SUMMARY...A storm or two may still initiate along the dryline west
of Wichita. Tornadoes and large/very-large hail would be possible
with these discrete storms. Additional convection is possible as the
cold front moves through the area later this evening. Convection
along the cold front would pose more of a damaging-wind threat.

DISCUSSION...Cumulus development has continued to increase to the
west of Wichita. Recent KICT radar imagery shows weak, but steadily
increasing reflectivity presentation with this activity. While
upper-level forcing is not as strong as to the north, there remains
a window over the next few hours where storms could mature this
evening. The KICT VWP shows 0-1 km SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2.
Tornadoes as well as large to very large hail would be possible with
these discrete storms. There does remain some uncertainty on storm
coverage as temperature in the warm sector have cooled slightly and
objective analysis shows a coincident increase in MLCIN.

Later this evening, the cold front, reinforced by convective
outflow, will move through the area. Given the linear forcing, wind
damage would then beco*e the primary threat along with a more
isolated risk for large hail and QLCS tornadoes.

..Wendt.. 04/29/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...to*...ICT...

LAT...LON   38059757 38509725 38469625 37969591 37229646 37069653
            37059760 37189776 38059757