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Mesoscale Discussion 0581
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Colorado into northwesten
Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 291852Z - 292115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development may gradually
consolidate while spreading southeastward across the region through
3-5 PM MDT, posing some increase in potential for strong wind gusts,
in addition to a risk for mostly small hail.

DISCUSSION...Beneath the plume of stronger mid-level cooling,
insolation and deep boundary-layer mixing are contributing to very
steep low through mid-level lapse rates across much of the central
high plains.  In the wake of a southeastward advancing surface cold
front, it appears that the boundary-layer moisture is sufficient to
contribute to CAPE on the order of 500-1000+ J/kg, in a corridor
east of Denver CO toward the Goodland KS vicinity, despite the
cooler surface temperatures.  

This destabilization is already contributing to increasing
thunderstorm development to the southeast of the Interstate 76
corridor of northeastern Colorado.  Beneath modestly sheared
westerly deep-layer mean flow (20-30+ kt), further intensification
of these storms seems probable as they develop east-southeastward. 
Small to marginally severe hail is possible in stronger cells, along
with locally strong surface gusts.  It is possible that
consolidating outflows could contribute to an upscale growing
cluster with strong surface gusts at least approaching severe limits
subsequently beco*ing a bit more widespread.  However, it is not
clear that a severe weather watch will be needed due to the general
marginal nature of the threat.

..Kerr/Hart.. 04/29/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON   40320241 39840196 39400092 38660077 38520175 39000293
            39440389 39670403 39850306 40320241