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Mesoscale Discussion 0580
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

Areas affected...the central Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 291757Z - 292000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The initiation of at least one or two supercells appears
possible by 3-5 PM CDT, acco*panied by the potential for large hail
and a couple of tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...A plume of colder mid-level air (included 500 mb temps
below -15C) is in the process of nosing east/southeast of the
Colorado/Wyoming Rockies into the adjacent central Great Plains. 
Associated destabilization may have contributed to the recent
transient intensification of thunderstorms near Imperial NE.  

Farther east, deepening convective development is already underway,
in response to boundary-layer destabilization driven by insolation 
and perhaps ascent associated with low-level warm advection, to the
north and northeast of a deepening surface low, from southeast of
McCook NE toward the Concordia KS vicinity.  Despite somewhat modest
surface dew points, beco*ing maximized near 60F along and to the
north of the developing warm front, beneath the northern periphery
of the warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air,
boundary-layer based CAPE appears to be increasing to 1500-2000
J/kg.  

Further destabilization, and erosion of the mid-level inhibition,
appears likely in response to continued daytime heating and eastward
advection of the plume of cold mid-level air through 20-22Z.  Latest
Rapid Refresh and high-resolution Rapid Refresh output appears
increasingly suggestive that this will support the initiation of
isolated boundary-layer based storm development, to the
north/northeast of the eastward migrating surface low center. 

Despite the rather modest deep-layer ambient wind fields across this
region (including southerly flow at 500 mb around 30+ kt), veering
profiles with height in lower to mid-levels to the north of the warm
front, coupled with the higher boundary-layer moisture and ambient
vertical vorticity, may prove conducive to supercells capable of
producing tornadoes, in addition to severe hail.

..Kerr/Hart.. 04/29/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...to*...GID...GLD...

LAT...LON   40579980 40989882 40419772 39949775 39649838 39769914
            39770055 40579980