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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST NE TO NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS...

...SUMMARY...
A multi-outco*e severe weather episode is forecast this afternoon
into tonight across the central Great Plains vicinity.
Conditionally, the threat for significant severe weather intensities
is apparent which includes destructive wind and hail, along with a
few strong tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
A negative-tilt shortwave trough over the northern/central Rockies
will eject onto the central Great Plains by this evening before
evolving into a closed low near the Mid-MO Valley overnight. A
strong mid-level speed max in excess of 70 kts at 500-mb will eject
through the basal portion tonight. Lee cyclone near the CO/KS/NE
border will deepen as it tracks east towards far north-central KS
through 00Z, before arcing northeast into the Mid-MO Valley as it
weakens slightly overnight. At 00Z, a sharp dryline will arc
south-southwest from this cyclone, with a pronounced cold front
sweeping southeast across western KS. This cold front will
progressively overtake the dryline from north to south through
tonight. 

...Central Great Plains vicinity...
Multiple forecast scenarios are expected to unfold this afternoon
and continue into tonight. Sufficient mesoscale confidence exists to
warrant a wind-driven category 4/Moderate Risk along the NE/KS
border, but not yet enough to include higher tornado probabilities
farther south.

Two primary corridors of scattered elevated thunderstorms are
ongoing. The first across eastern KS into the Lower MO Valley will
likely shift east and decay as a stout elevated mixed-layer expands
east-northeast today. The second across west-central NE to the
west-northwest of the initially quasi-stationary frontal zone may
persist with continued isentropic ascent. Sustained severe
thunderstorm development is most likely to occur to the south and
east of this corridor of early-day convection near the surface
cyclone track and associated frontal zone. Large-scale ascent will
beco*e quite strong along the northwest periphery of near 60 F
surface dew points. Deep-layer shear profiles will initially be
modest and tend to favor a cluster convective mode with a mix of
severe hail and wind. In the late afternoon to early evening, this
activity should impinge on larger buoyancy peaking near the
south-central NE/north-central KS border, which in conjunction with
strengthening low to mid-level flow attendant to the aforementioned
shortwave trough, should foster an intensifying and broadening MCS.
All severe weather hazards will be possible, but destructive wind
gusts may ultimately beco*e the more widespread hazard across
south-central to eastern NE and north-central/northeast KS. This
activity should generally weaken east of the Mid-MO Valley later
this evening.

Intense surface heating into the 90s to the west of the dryline
should lead to minimal MLCIN by late afternoon along the dryline. A
few discrete supercells are possible across the central to
south-central KS and north-central OK portion of the dryline where
mid-level height falls will occur. Farther south, confidence
decreases in sustained supercell development, but conditionally the
threat will exist to the Red River. If sustained supercells form,
very large hail along with tornadoes will be the primary hazards
amid 62-65 F surface dew points. While the corridor of minimal MLCIN
may be narrow given the strength of the elevated mixed-layer
relative to warm-sector moisture quality, any established supercells
will encounter an intensifying low-level jet this evening. This
could support a couple strong tornadic supercells as well. More
probable convective development is anticipated later in the evening
as the sweeping cold front overtakes the dryline from north to
south. Convective mode will be linear within this regime, but an
eastward-propagating MCS is possible with damaging winds beco*ing
the more co*mon hazard. This activity should tend to weaken
overnight as instability diminishes over the Ozark Plateau.

..Grams/Mosier.. 04/29/2022