Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat will develop across parts of the southern High
Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. Large hail, wind damage and a
few tornadoes are expected. A marginal severe threat will also be
possible in parts of the central Appalachians Sunday afternoon.

...Southern High Plains...
An upper-level trough will move quickly eastward across the
Intermountain West on Sunday. Ahead of the system, mid-level flow
across the southern and central Plains will be somewhat cyclonic and
from the west-southwest. Models suggest that a lead shortwave trough
ahead of the main system will move eastward across the southern and
central High Plains Sunday afternoon. This will create conditions
favorable for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development.
The airmass ahead of this shortwave trough will beco*e moderately
unstable by afternoon across most of west Texas northward into the
Oklahoma Panhandle. Although not particularly focused, thunderstorm
development will be possible during the afternoon along the western
and northern edges of the moderate instability from far eastern New
Mexico into west Texas, and northward into far southeastern
Colorado. Thunderstorms are expected to beco*e organized and move
eastward across the southern High Plains during the late afternoon
and early evening. Isolated marginally severe storms could also
occur further north into parts of southwest Kansas.

In addition the moderately unstable airmass, the exit region of a 55
to 70 knot mid-level jet will create strong deep-layer shear across
parts of southern High Plains. This feature will also enhance lift
and push the elevated mixed layer eastward, making conditions ripe
for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches
in diameter will be possible across parts of the Texas Panhandle
were the co*bination of instability and shear is forecast to beco*e
maximized. In addition, a 50 to 65 knot low-level jet is forecast to
strengthen across the eastern Texas Panhandle. This will strengthen
0-3 km storm relative helicities to near 400 m2/s2 by early evening,
being ideal for tornadoes. A strong tornado could occur in this
environment. A wind damage threat will also exist with the stronger
storms. The severe threat should persist into the mid to late
evening before a capping inversion reduces convection across the
region.

...Central Appalachians...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the eastern
Great Lakes on Sunday. To the south of this feature, some
destabilization is expected to occur across a moist airmass located
in the central Appalachian mountains. Deep-layer shear in this area
could be strong enough for a marginal severe threat, with 0-6 km
shear being mostly in the 30 to 35 knot range. The stronger
thunderstorms that develop in the higher terrain during the
afternoon could produce isolated strong wind gusts, especially as
low-level lapse rates steepen.

..Broyles.. 04/29/2022