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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0726 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NE PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a portion of the
central states arcing into the northeast Great Basin this afternoon
through tonight. Within this broader regime, greatest confidence for
severe hail exists across the Nebraska Panhandle during the late
evening to early overnight.

...Southeast ID/northern UT to the NE Panhandle...
A negative-tilt shortwave trough over northern CA will move east
towards the central Rockies through early Friday. While strong mid
to upper-level winds will largely remain confined to the backside of
the trough, strengthening large-scale ascent will overspread the
northeast Great Basin through central WY this afternoon. Despite
surface dew points only peaking in the 30s, pockets of surface
temperatures warming through the 60s should support meager buoyancy
amid a steep lapse rate environment. Locally severe wind gusts and
small hail will be possible in the strongest updrafts during the
late afternoon to early evening.

Tonight, ascent tied to the shortwave trough will impinge on the
northwest periphery of the Great Plains low-level moisture plume. As
low-level moistening occurs amid southeasterly flow, increasing
elevated buoyancy is anticipated given rather steep mid-level lapse
rates around 8 C/km. Most guidance suggests a few robust updrafts
should develop near the WY/CO/NE border and spread into the
destabilizing air mass in the NE Panhandle. Large hail and locally
strong gusts will be possible, until convection probably weakens
within a small cluster towards the end of the period.

...Mid-MO Valley to the central and southern Great Plains...
Much of the central states will be under the influence of modest
mid-level westerlies (predominately 20-35 kts at 500-mb) amid
low-amplitude ridging ahead of the western trough. Increasingly
expansive and deepening boundary-layer moisture beneath an elevated
mixed-layer in advance of tomorrow's greater severe threat will
primarily characterize today. Nevertheless, there will be
opportunities for at least isolated severe storms to occur during
the late afternoon and evening. The two primary areas of focus
appear to be within the northeast periphery of the low-level warm
theta-e advection regime from the Mid-MO Valley to eastern KS, and
the second along the dryline from western KS to west TX.

Most guidance suggests the warm-advection regime is likely to
support scattered thunderstorm coverage, especially this evening as
the low-level jet strengthens across TX/OK/KS. An overall modest
co*bination of deep-layer shear and buoyancy suggest the overall
severe threat should remain isolated, although a few weak supercells
are possible.

Along the dryline, convective coverage may remain quite sparse and
limited in temporal extent to a few hours in the early evening, with
minimal large-scale ascent beyond low-level convergence. The setup
will support a conditional threat for a couple supercells with large
hail as the main hazard.

..Grams/Jewell.. 04/28/2022