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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Operational and ensemble guidance suggests an active period of
severe weather potential is possible during the Day 4-8 period. The
mid/upper level pattern will continue to be progressive during this
time, with several shortwave impulses ejecting eastward across the
Plains into the Midwest. 

...Day 4/Sun - Texas South Plains/Concho Valley Vicinity...

A weak midlevel shortwave impulse is forecast to eject across the
southern Rockies into the southern Plains on Tuesday. This wave will
provide subtle ascent over a modestly moist/unstable airmass.
Forecast guidance indicates quite a bit of mixing across the TX
South Plains and Concho Valley vicinity near a surface dryline. This
will likely result in higher-based convection. Nevertheless,
vertical shear will support rotating updrafts and supercells. Steep
lapse rates and elongated hodographs will support large hail, while
steep low-level lapse rates and a relatively dry sub-cloud layer
enhances damaging gust potential. If pockets of stronger
boundary-layer moisture persist, some tornado potential is possible,
though this remains uncertain.

...Day 5/Mon - Portions of North Texas/Southern OK toward the
ArkLaTex...

A midlevel shortwave trough will spread eastward across the
southern/central Plains on Monday. Guidance varies concerning how
far north or south the wave eject, and strongest ascent may be
displaces from better low-level moisture and surface boundaries.
Nevertheless, the overall pattern appears favorable for severe
thunderstorm potential across parts of southern OK and northern TX
as a surface low develops east from the TX Panhandle across OK.
Morning showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of the
area, but guidance suggests this should clear out and allow for
airmass recovery ahead of a dryline. If this occurs, supercells with
a threat for all severe hazards will be possible. A cold front will
surge east/southeast during the evening/overnight hours and
additional convection could develop and shift east toward the
ArkLaTex overnight.

...Days 6-8/Tue-Thu...

Forecast confidence diminishes during the latter half of the
forecast period. However, medium range guidance does eject another
mid/upper trough across the Plains into the Midwest during this
time. However, the timing of this feature, and the latitude at which
it ejects is unclear and will impact where any stronger surface
cyclogenesis occurs. Some severe potential will likely exist from
the southern Plains toward the Mid-South, but uncertainty is too
great to delineate 15 percent probability areas at this time.