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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...Synopsis...
***OUTBREAK OF DANGEROUS FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO ON FRIDAY***

On the backside of an eastward-advancing western CONUS trough, an
intense west-northwesterly midlevel speed maximum will overspread
the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during peak
heating. In response, a lee surface low over western KS will rapidly
deepen, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the
southern High Plains. By the evening hours, the large-scale trough
and attendant surface cyclone will lift northeastward across the
central Plains, while a cold front sweeps southward across the
central and southern High Plains. This large-scale pattern will
yield extremely critical fire-weather conditions over southeastern
CO, and high-end critical conditions over parts of the Southwest and
much of the southern High Plains.

Farther east, strong/deep northwesterly flow will continue to
overspread the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on the backside of an
occluded mid/upper-level low. In the low-levels, a relatively
warm/dry post-frontal airmass will remain in place -- where fine
fuels continue to dry.

...Southeastern Colorado...
As temperatures climb into the upper 70s by early afternoon, strong
downslope warming/drying of a dry antecedent airmass will result in
5-10 percent minimum RH. Under mostly clear skies, the diurnally
deepening boundary layer will extend into the very strong
west-northwesterly flow aloft, while the surface pressure gradient
rapidly tightens behind the sharpening dryline. A multi-model
consensus suggests that these factors will favor sustained
west-northwesterly surface winds of 30-40 mph with gusts upwards of
55 mph. This volatile co*bination of strong/gusty surface winds and
anomalously low RH atop critically dry fuels will foster extreme
fire-weather behavior during the afternoon hours. Therefore, upon
collaboration with WFO PUB, Extremely Critical highlights have been
added for southeastern CO. By the late evening hours, a cold front
will sweep southward across the area, with a northwesterly wind
shift and breezy conditions persisting in its wake.

...Parts of the Southwest and much of the southern High Plains...
Behind the dryline, deep boundary-layer mixing will result in
widespread minimum RH of 5-15 percent by the early afternoon. At the
same time, sustained westerly surface winds of 20-30 mph will
develop as the pressure gradient tightens. This will result in an
expansive area of high-end critical conditions across parts of the
Southwest and much of the southern High Plains. The eastern extent
of critical conditions will be demarcated by the sharpening dryline.

...Northeast and Mid-Atlantic...
Efficient diurnal heating of the dry post-frontal airmass will allow
for 20-25 percent minimum RH, where fine fuels continue to dry
across the region. The dry boundary-layer conditions coupled with
sustained northwesterly surface winds near 15 mph will lead to
elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon hours.

..Weinman.. 04/28/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...