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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are possible primarily after
sunset across western Nebraska. In addition, a severe thunderstorm
or two may develop late Thursday afternoon or evening along the
dryline from Texas into western Oklahoma. A few strong/severe storms
may also form across portions of Kansas into eastern Nebraska. Other
isolated marginally severe storms are possible from southeastern
Idaho into western Wyoming.

...Western Nebraska...

Strong west coast trough will advance into the Great Basin during
the latter half of the period. Downstream across the Plains,
high-level diffluent flow and increasing height falls after sunset
will provide large-scale support for increased convective threat,
especially across the central High Plains as moisture returns to
this region late. While latest model guidance does not suggest a
very focused/strong LLJ into western NE, increasing southeasterly
flow should allow boundary-layer moisture to advance across the
central Plains toward the Nebraska Panhandle as easterly low-level
flow should contribute to significant destabilization during the
evening as dew points increase across this region. Both the NAM/RAP
depict significant MUCAPE (2500+ J/kg) if lifting a parcel around
1km. Latest thinking is a few high-based storms may develop near
sunset but more robust convection should evolve later in the evening
when moisture surges into cooling/steep lapse-rate environment.
Primary severe threat should be hail with elevated supercells.

...Plains...

Early this morning, weak MCV appears to have developed within a
larger co*plex of storms along the KS/OK border east of LBL.
Remnants of this activity should propagate east through sunrise and
weaken within a larger warm-advection regime. Cloud debris and
cooler temperatures across the eastern Plains should negate
meaningful convection due to suppressed surface destabilization.
However, intense near-dryline heating may result in a storm or two
along the boundary from western TX/OK/KS. If convection develops it
should wane with loss of heating. Otherwise, several CAMs solutions
suggest convection may develop along the front over central/eastern
NE. Weak large-scale forcing is somewhat problematic but modest
boundary-layer heating near the wind shift may be adequate for a few
strong/severe storms. Have extended MRGL Risk along the front to
account for this potential.

...ID/WY/northern UT...

Seasonally cold mid-level temperatures will spread across ID/NV
toward western WY by late afternoon. This should aid destabilization
ahead of the front despite the marginal moisture currently
observed/expected across this region. Forecast soundings suggest
gusty winds are possible within a steep lapse-rate environment, and
perhaps some small hail.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/28/2022