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Mesoscale Discussion 0570
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022

Areas affected...portions of eastern New Mexico and southwest Texas.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 271820Z - 272015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm initiation across the higher terrain/dryline
across eastern New Mexico and far southwest Texas is expected to
continue early this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms may pose a
risk for hail/damaging winds as they move to the east.

DISCUSSION...As of 1800 UTC, afternoon visible/radar imagery showed
isolated thunderstorms developing near a diffuse dryline co-located
with the higher terrain of the Sacramento and southern Sangre de
Cristo Ranges of eastern New Mexico. Surface obs and SPC
mesosnalysis indicate subtle upslope flow is supporting weak
moisture advection with dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s F. As
temperatures continue to warm through the 70s F, 500-1000 J/kg of
MLCAPE and weak upslope flow should support the development of
isolated stronger updrafts through the afternoon. Relatively modest
westerly winds aloft may support some storm organization owing to
25-35 kt of effective shear. Isolated multi-cell clusters or perhaps
weak supercell structures may pose a risk for damaging wind
gusts/large hail owing to steep low and mid-level lapse rates near 8
C/km.

As storms move east through the day, some upscale growth into
loosely organized clusters with a risk for a few damaging wind gusts
is possible. However, the lack of stronger forcing for ascent
suggests the severe threat may remain more isolated. Given these
factors, a weather watch is unlikely.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 04/27/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   31300503 31180415 32590340 33300322 34390333 35010343
            35530394 35780436 35830476 35630512 35060535 34510525
            33750538 32190500 31300503