Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN KS AND
SOUTHEAST CO TO THE TX TRANS-PECOS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts along with small to marginally severe
hail will be possible this afternoon and evening from western Kansas
and southeast Colorado southward to the Trans-Pecos of Texas.

...Southern High Plains...
The leading edge of low 50s surface dew points has spread across the
Permian Basin and TX South Plains as modifying low-level moisture
return persists along the Lower TX Gulf Coast. This poleward
moisture transport will expand north-northeast across the rest of
the southern High Plains into KS but with vertical mixing of drier
air aloft as robust boundary-layer heating occurs today.

A shortwave impulse over AZ will eject east towards the southern
High Plains through tonight. Ascent tied to this feature will aid in
initial thunderstorm development this afternoon in the lee of the
Sangre de Cristos and over the Raton Mesa. Here, buoyancy will
likely remain scant but some enhancement of mid-level westerlies
will help push isolated to scattered convection eastward. Given the
deep dry boundary layer, evaporatively aided wind gusts locally
reaching severe levels will likely be the primary threat. The
convective wind threat should diminish roughly around the longitude
of the eastern TX Panhandle border as MLCIN will beco*e increasingly
pronounced at lower elevations with eastern extent.

Farther south, isolated thunderstorms are likely off the Sacramentos
of southeast NM to the TX Trans-Pecos where buoyancy will be greater
with MLCAPE nearing 1000 J/kg. Veering of the wind profile with
height should be adequate for 30-35 kt effective bulk shear. This
may support a spatially and temporally limited period of a few weak,
slow-moving supercells. These would pose a threat for isolated
severe hail and locally strong gusts.

..Grams/Jewell.. 04/27/2022