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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A somewhat progressive upper pattern will develop across the CONUS
for the last day of April and into the first week of May. This will
foster multiple days of severe potential across parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley and the southern Plains vicinity. 

...Day 4/Sat - Middle Mississippi Valley Vicinity...

A closed upper low and attendant trough will develop eastward from
the central Plains to the upper/middle MS Valley. A surface low over
southeast SD will migrate eastward along the IA/MN border through
early Sunday while a cold front develops eastward across eastern MO
through the day and into eastern IL by Sunday morning. Ahead of the
front, low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath modestly steep midlevel
lapse rates will support moderate destabilization. Vertical wind
profiles will be mostly unidirectional, though some modest backed
low-level winds are possible across the northern portions of the 15
percent risk area. At this time, a linear storm mode appears most
likely, given deep-layer unidirectional flow parallel to the surface
front. Nevertheless, some semi-discrete storms could develop ahead
of the front early in storm evolution and all severe hazards appear
possible. 

...Day 5/Sun - TX South Plains to Concho Valley Vicinity...

A weak mid/upper shortwave impulse is forecast to spread eastward
from the southern Rockies into west TX Sunday afternoon. This will
induce weak surface cyclogenesis over eastern NM. Southeasterly
low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints across the region
ahead of a south to north oriented dryline across far west TX. 
Isolated supercells capable of large hail and strong gusts appear
likely during the afternoon and evening. The northward extent of the
threat is a bit uncertain as a large area of warm advection showers
and thunderstorms may be ongoing Sunday morning and persist through
the day across parts of the TX Panhandle into northwest TX/southwest
OK.

...Day 6/Mon - Southern Plains Vicinity...

Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement that a
stronger/more co*pact mid/upper shortwave trough will spread east
across the southern/central Plains on Monday. There is some
uncertainty on the northward extent of the severe threat, and
adjustments to the 15 percent area may be needed in future outlooks.
Nevertheless, the overall pattern suggests favorable conditions for
severe thunderstorms are possible as strong vertical shear
overspreads a very moist and unstable airmass. A surface low will
develop east across OK, with a dryline extending southward into
central TX. Supercells capable of all severe hazards appear possible
at this time.  

...Days 7-8/Tue-Wed...

Predictability beco*es quite low as forecast uncertainty increases
markedly by the end of the period. Some severe threat will likely
develop somewhere from the southern/central Plains toward the MS
Valley, but deterministic and ensemble guidance varies in timing and
location of a potential western trough ejecting eastward.