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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce strong gusts and
hail from eastern New Mexico and southeast Colorado into the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles and western Kansas late Wednesday
afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
With upper troughing to affect both western and eastern portions of
the U.S. today, ridging will prevail over the central third of the
nation.  Within this area of ridging, a fast-moving short-wave
trough now moving onshore over southern California is forecast to
cross the Four Corners states through the day, eventually reaching
the central Plains late in the period.  This feature will be
associated with isolated severe potential over the central Plains to
southern High Plains region during the afternoon and evening.

At the surface, high pressure will prevail east of the Rockies,
while a cold front weakens with time over the West.  In conjunction
with the aforementioned weak upper system reaching the Plains late,
an associated lee surface low is expected to migrate slowly eastward
into the central Plains overnight.

...South-central Nebraska southwestward to the southern High
Plains...
Modest boundary-layer moisture (50s dewpoints) is forecast to spread
northward across the High Plains today, beneath a capping inversion
forecast to prevail across the region.  

As daytime heating maximizes during the afternoon, capping should
weaken as the boundary layer mixes.  Aided by ascent associated with
weak short-wave troughing crossing the southern Rockies, isolated
thunderstorm development is expected.  Storms should evolve first
across southern Colorado and eastern New Mexico, and then spread
eastward across the central and southern High Plains and western
Kansas through the afternoon and evening.  

Given the deep dry boundary layer, evaporatively aided wind gusts
locally reaching severe levels will likely be the primary severe
risk, though hail will also be possible.  However, given modest
instability, overall risk should remain local/isolated.  Some CAMs
indicate a bit of upscale/linear clustering during the evening over
western Kansas and/or the Panhandles region, but will maintain just
5% severe probability (MRGL risk) at this time, given the
thermodynamic deficiencies.

..Goss/Weinman.. 04/27/2022