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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2022

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST
TEXAS INTO WESTERN OK AND CENTRAL KS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

...SUMMARY...
A severe thunderstorm or two may develop late Thursday afternoon or
evening from northwest Texas into western Oklahoma and central
Kansas. If a storm can develop, large hail and strong gusts will be
possible.

...TX/OK/KS...

A conditional severe thunderstorm threat will exist on Thursday from
late afternoon into early evening along a dryline from parts of
northwest TX into western OK and central KS. 

A weak mid/upper shortwave impulse will be located over KS/OK
Thursday morning and will quickly shift east through the morning.
The upper ridge will shift east toward the MS Valley through the
period as a large-scale upper trough moves inland across the western
U.S. Warm midlevel temperatures will be centered over the
southern/central Plains, and strong capping will persist for much of
the period. Some elevated convection associated with the early day
shortwave impulse will likely be ongoing across OK/KS Thursday
morning, but should quickly diminish/shift east. 

The midlevel capping inversion will suppress convection across most
areas. However, weak lee cyclogenesis will allow southerly low-level
flow to continue to transport upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints
northward ahead of a surface dryline. While guidance varies on how
far eastward the dryline will mix during the day, it should roughly
extend from western KS to the western OK/TX Panhandle border (or
just east of there) into western TX. Strong heating/mixing along the
dryline and increasing low and midlevel moist advection should at
least erode capping in pockets along the dryline by late
afternoon/early evening. Additionally, most guidance indicates a
weak lead shortwave impulse will eject from the central/southern
Rockies into the Plains, providing subtle forcing for ascent. If a
few storms can develop and beco*e sustained, moderate instability,
adequate shear and steep lapse rates should support a large-hail and
strong-gust threat.

..Leitman.. 04/27/2022