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Mesoscale Discussion 1792
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022

Areas affected...much of northeast Kansas into parts of the mid
Missouri Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 172211Z - 180215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms should develop from southeast Nebraska into
east-central and northeast Kansas with large hail and brief tornado
risk. With time, damaging winds should beco*e the primary concern as
storms develop into northwest Missouri this evening.

DISCUSSION...Visible imagery and surface observations indicate an
uncapped and unstable air mass near a surface trough extending from
the TX Panhandle across central KS and into eastern NE. Meanwhile,
an outflow boundary stretches from northern MO into western IA,
where air mass modification is underway.

Storms are expected to develop between 23-00Z along the surface
trough into northeast KS and southeast NE, aided by the increasing
low-level jet. Modest mid and upper flow atop increasing low-level
southwesterlies will favor both supercells initially and an MCS
later this evening. Steep lapse rates with cool midlevel
temperatures will also favor damaging hail with the initial cellular
activity, and a brief tornado may occur near the old outflow
boundary as well, prior to storms merging this evening.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 09/17/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...to*...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   40659468 39809468 39469474 38929516 38389591 38109650
            38159723 38169827 38449838 38929834 39299806 40359736
            41009706 41479686 41559660 41619624 41549557 41429520
            41149496 40659468