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Mesoscale Discussion 1786
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

Areas affected...western Nebraska and adjacent portions of
southeastern Wyoming...northeastern Colorado and southwestern South
Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 161858Z - 162100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorms, perhaps evolving into an
organizing cluster of storms, will overspread the region through 4-5
PM MDT, acco*panied by at least some risk for severe hail and strong
to locally severe wind gusts.  It is not clear that a severe weather
watch will be needed, but trends are being monitored for this
possibility.

DISCUSSION...Mid-level cooling and divergent upper flow associated
with a jet streak (30-70 kt in the 500-300 mb layer) crossing the
Laramie Mountains/Front Range vicinity are supporting thunderstorm
initiation from near the Cheyenne WY area into portions of the
Nebraska Panhandle.  While low-level moisture is modest, steepening
mid-level lapse rates are contributing to increasing CAPE for the
deepening mixed-layer layer, which is beco*ing characterized by
temperature-dew point spreads on the order of 30 deg F.  CAPE may
peak in excess of 1000 J/kg within the lee surface troughing across
the Nebraska Panhandle by late afternoon.

Given the forcing for ascent, strengthening deep-layer shear, and
evolving thermodynamic profiles, the environment appears conducive
to intensifying thunderstorm development capable of producing at
least marginally severe hail and locally strong downbursts
initially.  Particularly as convectively generated cold pools
consolidate, an upscale growing and organizing cluster may evolve
through 22-23Z. This probably will be acco*panied by increasingly
widespread strong surface gusts, though the severe gust threat may
be tempered by the somewhat modest potential instability and
generally weak low-level ambient wind fields (south to westerly at
10-20 kt in the 850-700 mb layer).

..Kerr/Grams.. 09/16/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   43360276 42590088 40720158 40470429 41640384 42810415
            43360276