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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5...
An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the
north-central U.S. on Monday. At the surface on Monday afternoon, an
axis of maximized low-level moisture is forecast to be from the Ohio
Valley northwestward into eastern parts of the northern Plains.
Although pockets of moderate instability may develop along this
corridor, the quality of low-level moisture remains questionable due
to a substantial spread in the model solutions. Thunderstorms could
develop during the late afternoon along and to the east of the
instability axis, but subsidence due to the ridge should keep
convective coverage isolated.

On Tuesday, the upper-level ridge is forecast to build slowly
northward into the upper Mississippi Valley. A corridor of
instability is forecast to develop from near the ridge eastward into
the western Great Lakes. Although isolated thunderstorms could form
along and to the east of the instability axis, subsidence associated
with the ridge should limit convective coverage.  This should be
problematic for a substantial severe threat.

...Wednesday/Day 6 to Friday/Day 8...
On Wednesday and Thursday, the models move an upper-level ridge
across the north-central states as an upper-level trough moves from
the north-central states into the Northeast. Strong thunderstorms
could develop ahead of the trough on Wednesday afternoon in the
Great Lakes, and on Thursday afternoon in parts of New England. At
this time, confidence in moisture return and the timing of the
system is too low to consider a threat area.

On Friday, the models move an upper-level trough into the central
and northern High Plains. Due to an upper-level ridge in the
southern and central U.S., moisture return ahead of the trough
should be weak. For this reason, a substantial severe threat is not
expected on Friday afternoon and evening.