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Mesoscale Discussion 0536
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 141...

Valid 222349Z - 230145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 141
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat will continue this evening across the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle, where large hail and wind damage will
be possible. A tornado threat could develop across the eastern Texas
Panhandle with a couple of hours. A replacement watch could be
necessary.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Amarillo
has several supercell thunderstorms ongoing from just northwest of
Amarillo northward into the central Oklahoma Panhandle. These storms
are located just to the east of a dryline, along the western edge of
a pocket of moderate instability with MLCAPE from 2000 to 2500 J/kg.
This co*bined with mid-level lapse rates of 7.5 to 8.0 C/km will be
favorable for large hail. An isolated wind damage threat will also
exist. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter could occur
with the most intense updrafts.

Over the next few hours, an 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet will
approach the southern High Plains.  This co*bined with a
strengthening low-level jet across the southern and central Plains,
will be will markedly increase deep-layer and low-level shear. For
these reason, a tornado threat may develop, mainly with the most
dominant supercells that can move eastward into the higher surface
dewpoints across the eastern Texas Panhandle. Tornado watch issuance
could beco*e necessary.

..Broyles.. 04/22/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   36980069 36860136 36230160 35010157 34540145 34350095
            34420036 34750011 35400001 36580002 36900025 36980069