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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Wed Sep 14 2022

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered high-based storms capable of damaging
wind gusts are possible from the Texas Panhandle, to central Kansas,
and into central/eastern Nebraska Thursday.

...Southern and central Plains...
Broad troughing across the western US is forecast to continue
through Thursday as high pressure shifts eastward. Embedded within
the broader trough, a subtle shortwave is expected to move over the
southern and central Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. Trailing
from a weak surface low across the Dakotas, a lee trough/low will
support increasing southerly flow across much of the Plains. Modest
moisture return (surface dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s F) will
filter westward toward the surface boundary where plentiful diurnal
heating is expected. Storms will be possible along the entire
corridor from NE into the TX Panhandle, though there remains some
uncertainty on convective coverage given the subtle forcing for
ascent. Current hi-res guidance suggests the greatest storm coverage
will remain closer to the surface low across central and eastern NE,
where low-level flow is expected to be locally stronger. 

By early to mid afternoon, convective development along the length
of the lee trough is expected. With only modest surface moisture
return forecast, regional model soundings show weak buoyancy
profiles generally less than 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Modest flow aloft
associated with the shortwave trough should also limit effective
shear to 20-25 kt. Storm organization potential will likely remain
localized and tied to consolidating outflow/clustering of any
multi-cell storms that persist. Should this occur, a well-mixed
boundary layer with steep low-level lapse rates and LCLs near 2 km
may support an isolated risk for damaging outflow winds given the
potential for stronger downdrafts. 

...Rest of US...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also anticipated across the
FL Peninsula, as a moist low-level airmass interacts with a weak
stationary front across the region. Weak vertical shear will keep
storms unorganized with only locally stronger wind gusts expected.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are also expected across the
northern Rockies and Great Basin, ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave
trough over the western CONUS. Limited buoyancy and shear should
preclude severe storms.

..Lyons/Jewell.. 09/14/2022