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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday through Saturday night in
a corridor from parts of the Upper Midwest into the southern Great
Plains.  This may include a risk for tornadoes, strong wind gusts
and hail.

...Synopsis...
A deepening mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to be centered over the
northern High Plains early Saturday, before then gradually moving
northeastward across the northern Plains while further
maturing/occluding. Surface low attendant to this cyclone will begin
the period over SD, before it also gradually moves northeastward and
occludes. An associated cold front will likely extend
south-southeastward through central SD, central NE, central KS, and
western OK Saturday morning. Northern portion of this front is
expected to make steady eastward progress throughout the day, ending
the period extending southward from WI into far western IL then back
southwestward into MO. Southern portion of the front will be less
progressive and will likely extend northeast OK southwestward into
far northwest TX by Sunday morning. 

Moderate low-level moisture beneath a remnant EML will result in at
least modest buoyancy throughout the warm sector, with thunderstorms
possible from the Upper Midwest into the southern Plains as the
mid-latitude cyclone and attendant cold front move eastward.  

Two separate forcing mechanisms will act as the impetus for
thunderstorm development. Large-scale forcing for ascent resulting
from the maturing mid-latitude cyclone (and shortwave troughs
pivoting around it) will be the main factor promoting storm
development from Lower MO Valley into the Upper Midwest.  

...Mid/Lower MO Valley into the Upper Midwest...
Dewpoints will likely be in upper 50s across much of the MO Valley
and Upper Midwest ahead of the cold front. The only exception is
near the surface low over eastern SD and along the warm front where
some low 60s dewpoints may develop amid the low-level moisture
convergence. Early afternoon storm development appears likely in
this more sheltered area where dewpoints reach the low 60s ahead of
the front/surface low. This mesoscale ascent will be augmented by a
shortwave trough rotating around the mid-latitude cyclone, with one
or more bands of semi-discrete storms likely in the narrowing warm
sector from the eastern Dakotas into northern/central MN. Mid- and
upper-level flow will be mostly meridional, promoting a fast
northerly storm motion, which could limit the residence time of any
warm-sector storm. Even so, the backed low-level flow expected over
this region could still result in enough low-level curvature to
support tornadogenesis with any more robust/long-lived surface-based
updraft. Hail and strong wind gusts are possible here as well.

Afternoon thunderstorm develop is also anticipated farther south
across IA and into the Lower MO Valley as the subtle forcing for
ascent attendant to the shortwave trough coupled with confluence
within the warm sector helps initiate storms. A more multicellular
storm mode appears likely here, with wind gusts associated with
bowing line segments as the primary severe threat. Depending on the
extent of afternoon/evening storms, re-development is possible
during the late evening and overnight as the front moves through. 

...KS/OK...
Much of KS and OK will be displaced south of the stronger forcing
for ascent, although recent guidance does show a secondary shortwave
trough moving into the region during the late afternoon/evening.
Main impetus for storm initiation across the region is expected to
be the dryline that will likely be draped from eastern KS back
southwestward into southwest OK. Initiation along this boundary
appears possible between 21Z and 00Z as temperatures increase into
the upper 70s/low 80s amid low 60s dewpoints. Uncertainties
regarding the location of this boundary as well as the strength of
the convective inhibition introduce some predictability issues,
limiting forecast confidence. Additionally, relatively warm
mid-levels will limit overall buoyancy and a weakness in the wind
fields at the top of the boundary layer could result in messy storm
mode. In contrast to those negative factors, the low-level flow will
be quite strong, supporting enlarged low-level hodographs.

All of these factors suggest a conditional risk for supercells
capable of all hazards, including tornadoes, will exist across the
region during the afternoon and evening. 

...Central/Southwest TX Vicinity...
Thunderstorm develop appears possible Saturday evening and overnight
as the dryline retreats back northwestward and dewpoints increase
into the 60s ahead of the front. This region will be displaced south
of the stronger flow aloft, but enough vertical shear should still
be in place to support a few stronger, more organizes updrafts.
Large hail is the primary severe threat.

..Mosier.. 04/22/2022