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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible across the Florida
Peninsula as well as over the Rockies on Wednesday. A few
thunderstorms are also possible across the northern Plains Wednesday
afternoon into early Thursday morning. Severe-thunderstorm potential
is low.

...Synopsis...
Expansive surface ridging is anticipated within the post-frontal
airmass across the eastern CONUS on Wednesday, which should keep the
majority of the region free of thunderstorms. The only exception is
FL, where low-level moisture will remain in place as the front
slowly progress southward. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
anticipated across the peninsula late Wednesday morning into
Wednesday afternoon.

Lee troughing is forecast across the High Plains, ahead of a
shortwave trough moving from the central/northern Rockies into the
northern Plains. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated within this
troughing, with the resulting low progressing gradually across SD.
Moisture across the Plains will be modest, but isolated
thunderstorms are still possible as the front associated with this
low impinges on a deeply mixed and modestly unstable airmass during
the late afternoon across SD. Additional thunderstorms are expected
Wednesday night amid the warm-air advection fostered by a strong
low-level jet. Both buoyancy and deep-layer vertical shear will be
modest, keeping the severe potential low.

Farther west, the airmass over the Intermountain West and
northern/central Rockies will be characterized by precipitable water
values from 0.75 to 1". This moisture will help promote afternoon
air mass destabilization and scattered thunderstorms across the
Rockies. Weak flow and modest buoyancy should keep storms
sub-severe.

..Mosier.. 09/12/2022