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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

Valid 221700Z - 231200Z

...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR AREAS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO INTO MUCH OF EASTERN COLORADO...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS....

Extremely critical strength winds are already being observed at
several observation sites across the southern and central High
Plains with some temperatures in the 80s already across eastern
Colorado. Widespread extremely critical conditions remain likely as
mixing deepens this afternoon and relative humidity drops further.
Expanded the Extremely Critical delineation slightly southwest
across New Mexico where sustained winds are forecast above 30 mph
and relative humidity in the single digits. 

Trimmed the isolated dry thunderstorm area slightly east to where
storm initiation is expected. Western portions of the isolated dry
thunderstorm area may see limited lightning activity, but if any
storms do develop, fire starts could spread rapidly given the
extremely critical wind/RH. Given this threat, will keep the
isolated dry thunderstorm threat farther west despite the more
conditional threat.

..Bentley.. 04/22/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022/

...Synopsis...
***DANGEROUS FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO EASTERN COLORADO***

A highly amplified large-scale trough and acco*panying intense
deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will emerge over the southern
Rockies and adjacent High Plains by peak heating. As a result,
strong cyclogenesis will occur over far northeastern Colorado during
the afternoon, with a sharpening dryline extending southward along
the Kansas/Colorado border and the Texas/New Mexico border. The
co*bination of a strong surface pressure gradient, hot/dry
conditions behind the dryline, and strong south-southwesterly flow
aloft will result in extremely critical fire-weather conditions from
east-central New Mexico into eastern Colorado today.

...East-central New Mexico into eastern Colorado...
As temperatures climb into the upper 70s to middle 80s behind the
sharpening dryline, deep boundary-layer mixing into very dry air
aloft will result in widespread 5-15 percent minimum RH. At the same
time, 30-40 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds (with
widespread gusts of 50-60 mph) will overspread critically dry fuels
(ERCs above the 90th+ percentile). The volatile co*bination of very
strong/gusty winds, anomalously warm/dry conditions, and near-record
dry fuels will encourage extreme fire-weather conditions. 

...Remainder of the central and southern High Plains...
The eastern extent of critical fire-weather conditions will be
demarcated by the placement of the dryline. Strong 30+ mph sustained
southerly surface winds (with higher gusts) concurrent with
afternoon RH values below 20% will extend into southern New Mexico,
West Texas, the western Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, western Kansas,
and western Nebraska -- where fuels remain critically dry.

...Dry Thunderstorm Potential...
Another point of concern will be isolated dry thunderstorm
development immediately along and ahead of the dryline this
afternoon, which is expected to take place along the axis of the
driest fuels. Any cloud-to-ground lightning flashes that can occur
in proximity to the Colorado/Kansas and New Mexico/Texas border area
will do so over very receptive fuels, and likely with little wetting
rainfall at the early stages of thunderstorm evolution.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...