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Mesoscale Discussion 1773
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0952 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2022

Areas affected...Western/central FL Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 101452Z - 101715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of localized damaging wind gusts and
perhaps a brief tornado will be possible late this morning into the
early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Extensive convection has been ongoing this morning
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, east of a nearly stationary
midlevel low over the lower MS Valley. While much of this activity
has been moving northward and only approaching the FL Gulf Coast at
an oblique angle, a recent outflow surge with a more easterly
co*ponent has been noted just offshore of Tampa Bay, which will
begin affecting portions of the western FL Peninsula a little later
this morning. 

While midlevel lapse rates are weak, diurnal heating amid rich
tropical moisture is supporting MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg, per recent
objective mesoanalyses. Moderate mid/upper-level flow will continue
to support modest storm organization as convection spreads inland
and/or redevelops across the peninsula. Locally damaging wind gusts
will likely be the primary hazard, especially with any
outflow-driven clusters that can evolve within the broader plume of
convection. Low-level flow/shear is rather weak, but a brief tornado
will also be possible, particularly with any semi-discrete cells
that end up merging into the larger band of storms. At this time,
watch issuance is unlikely, but will be reconsidered if
observational trends support a more organized/widespread threat than
currently anticipated.

..Dean/Hart.. 09/10/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   28318140 27118145 26408148 26108168 26368220 27468269
            28238298 28908294 29198287 29248221 29198157 28318140